The new incident timeline, explained (part 3)

Over the last few months we have spent a lot of time on the new incident timeline, explained. This is what we learned.

Lessons for your own runbook

Know who can change DNS at two in the morning. Know your origin IPs and who can rotate them. Know which routes are expensive, and have a rate limit ready for each of them.

Most outages during attacks are not caused by the attack itself but by rushed changes made while under pressure.

Why per-route baselines matter

A thousand requests per second to your homepage is Tuesday. A thousand requests per second to your password-reset endpoint is an attack. Global rate limits cannot tell the difference; per-route baselines can.

We learn the normal shape of traffic per route and per hour of the week, so a surge on a sensitive endpoint raises the risk score long before it approaches a global threshold.

Challenges beat blocks

Blocking lists go stale within minutes when attackers rotate through residential proxies. Proof-of-work does not care where a request comes from; it only cares whether the client is willing to pay the cost.

For a real browser that cost is a few hundred milliseconds, once per session. For a botnet sending a million requests a minute it is a million puzzles a minute — and at that point the attack stops being cheap.

Latency budget

Our budget for the whole filtering pipeline is one millisecond at the 99th percentile. Anything that cannot be decided within that budget runs asynchronously and influences the next request from the same client, not the current one.

That constraint shapes everything: data structures, where state lives and which signals we are willing to compute inline.

If you run into any of this in your own environment, our SOC is happy to take a look — even if you are not a customer.